tim's experiment

I know commenting on politics is supposed to be a game for the polite, but aren’t some of us overlooking an elephant in the room? Several political parties are currently contemplating, or promising, a boycott of the non-referendum caused by five Legco resignations. Much has been said and written about the opinions on the matter expressed by sundry Beijing apparatchiks, and the results of polls of the public’s view of the exercise. Nobody has pointed out the obvious. These parties would lose.

They must know this. The system used in regular Legco elections was carefully designed to favour small political parties. If we used the usual simple first-past-the-post system in single-member constituencies then all the winners would be democrats. Our screwed-up system was designed to help the DAB, but it helps any small party. So much so indeed that large parties are tempted to masquerade as small parties by fielding more than one list in the same constituency. This arrangement opened the door to Legco for the Liberals, and in due course for the Social Democrats. But the underlying reality is that two-thirds of the electorate vote for something more or less democratic every time.

The by-elections are a different kettle of fish. Only one seat will be available in each constituency. It is a straight race to see who gets the most votes. Under these circumstances a Liberal candidate would be lucky to keep his deposit. A DAB candidate will get the 30-odd percent which is the party’s normal crop. I know the DAB has been recruiting eagerly, but on the other hand all those geriatric mercenaries who will wave any flag for a free lunch box and a bus ride have to be replaced as they pop their clogs. The agonising dilemma for the DAB is that if they don’t participate the forces of democracy and subversion win easily. If they do participate it helps said forces of democracy and subversion even more. Many democratically inclined people are going to have to wander out of their comfort zone to vote for the Party of Flying Bananas. Come to that in some parts of Hong Kong the Party of Fragrant Female Lawyers may be a stretch. But if there is an alternative anti-democratic candidate in the field then a clear choice has to be made. People know what they don’t like.

And where does all this leave the Democratic Party proper? Sitting on the sidelines. Perhaps they could change their party symbol from a pigeon to a chicken.