tim's experiment

Fascinating to watch the reactions to our new CE. Anson Chan a belated fount of hostile comment. Regina, I rather suspect, would like a job. Taipan thinks only three of CY Leung’s supporters are capable of becoming policy secretaries (come on, the job’s not that difficult) while other commentators are pencilling names with enthusiasm. Some genius decided that China (a usefully vague word people use when guessing what passes through the collective mind of the Liaison  Office) wanted 80 per cent of existing secretaries to stay on in the interests of continuity. Heaven forbid that there should be any blips in the supply of mediocrity.

Clearly Mr Leung is not going to go short of advice. I am not sure that urging him to keep the tired old team more or less intact is very helpful, and putting forward Arthur Li as a potential appointee is barely short of sabotage. But I shall not add to the discord.

Some advice, though, for everyone else. Do not expect too much. I found a wonderful comment on politics from Michael Oakeshott lurking in a current (highly recommended) bestseller called the Social Animal. The quote goes like this: “In political activity, then, men ssail a boundless and bottomless sea; there is neither harbour for shelter nor floor for anchorage, neither starting place nor appointed destination. The enterprise is to keep afloat on an even keel; the sea is both friend and enemy; and the seamanship consists in using the resources of a traditional manner of behaviour in order to make a friend of every hostile occasion.” Success, in short, is keeping things afloat, not finding Paradise.

The other thing to remember is that politics is very much a matter of luck. Some politicians manage to hold power in unchallenging times, some meet challenges for which they are well equipped, and some are overwhelmed by events. Which you get is down to luck.  If Mr Tung had been Hong Kong’s last Governor the territory would still have enjoyed prosperity, and if Mr Patten had been the first CE there would still have been a financial crisis and a SARS epidemic. Mr Leung’s success will depend on many matters beyond his, and our, control.  That of course will not stop us blaming him if things go pearshaped, but that goes with the job too. He wanted it. He’s got it. Fruit will now fly.