tim's experiment

Considering the amount of assorted skullduggery which goes on in the New Territories, the Heung Yee Kuk is being strangely naive about the consequences of the CE election. This week we were told that the Kuk expected some concessions from the new CE on its hot issues — illegal structures and the Small House racket — in return for supporting CY Leung at the polls. Now let us leave aside as entirely irrelevant in this context the impropriety of election winners rewarding pressure groups or electoral college members in this way. No doubt it happens. I do not doubt that it happens all the time in elections conducted by the Kuk itself. Still, there are some further facts of life to be considered about how this works, in those places where it works.

The trade-in value of election support depends on how much the candidate needs it. In the early stages, when he is trying to establish a name and get some momentum going, expressions of approval are very valuable. Mr Leung was in the early stages a long shot, widely regarded as a mere prop to provide an election-like stage setting for the coronation of Henry Tang. When Mr Tang’s candidacy started to unravel there was still a good deal of reluctance to switch to Mr Leung, partly because people did not feel dignified changing horses too quickly and partly because Mr Leung has some problematic features in many people’s view. So support and praise at this stage were still undoubtably both welcome and valuable. I expect many people who came out for Mr Leung in this period will be tactfully rewarded is some way. So it goes.

However at this stage the Kuk was still in the Tang camp. There was no mystery about this. In the auction for the Kuk’s favours Mr Tang had offered the idea of the nine-story village house. Mr Tang is not a bad man and it may be that this offer was neither as naked or as explicit as the newspapers made it appear. Still, there was no doubt about its effect. The Kuk did not develope a liking for Mr Leung until the closing stages of the race, when Mr Tang had clearly hit an iceberg and the Liaison office was telling those lost sheep who still did not know whom to support that they should go with the public preference. Of course at this stage every sycophant, spear carrier and fellow-traveller on the election committee was with Mr Leung and he would still have been elected by a comfortable margin if the Kuk had stuck to its original choice. Gentlemen, under these circumstances the value of your support was zero. Your prospects of being rewarded for supplying it are similarly nugatory.

Of course this does not mean the prospects for illegal structures and Small House abuses are completely dim. You can try your luck in court. The government may chicken out at the end as it has often done before. But claims on Mr Leung’s gratitude are doomed to fall on deaf ears. When  he wanted it, he didn’t get it. When he got it, he didn’t need it. Thanks for nothing.