tim's experiment

Goodness you get a high class of rubbish in the SCMPost these days. Picture on Saturday’s front page showed a PLA frigate passing the Star Ferry Pier, accompanied by two helicopters. Apparently there were actually two frigates. Xinhua was reported as saying that they carried out a “co-ordinated patrol across the harbour”, resulting in more familiarity with the “air-sea situation” and improved ability to handle emergencies. I take this to mean that the two frigates sailed down the harhour, and possibly back, accompanied by the helicopter which each of them carries. This is a normal thing for the PLA navy to do and they have done it before.

This was not enough for the Post’s news desk, which deployed two reporters to turn this respectable sow’s ear into a political silk purse. Clearly what was needed for this purpose was someone — anyone — willing to read into this mundane piece of military practice a political massage related to some topical issue. Enter the ever-obliging Mr Lau Yui-siu. Mr Lau has been demoted since the last time I saw him in a Post piece. Then he was a “China affairs expert”; now he is a “China analyst”. And his analysis was that the sail down the harbour was supposed to send a “strong message” to protesters. The PLA, he said ominously “wanted to tell Hongkongers that they would be ready to carry out their duties if they are needed to handle the Occupy Central movement”.

Macau-based “military observer” Anthony Wong Dong (Mr Wong has previously appeared in the Post as the “chairman of the Macau-based International Military Association: some sort of groupie?) took a different view. He said the drill had been “restrained and humble” to avoid “making the Hong Kong public nervous”. So no story then?

Wait! Coming to the rescue we have “naval expert” Ni Lexiong. I know it’s a cruel trick to Google these guys but Prof Ni is an academic in a Shanghai university. He is the leading China authority on Alfred Thayer Mahan, an American naval theorist who died 100 years go. I dare say there isn’t much competition for the Mahan franchise. Prof Ni’s take on the matter was that the drill would be a deterrent to “disobedient forces”. It was a warning that Hong Kong people “should not challenge the Central government’s authority, with military means being Beijing’s last step to maintain  Hong Kong’s stability and prosperity.”

I hate to disagree with another naval enthusiast – there are not many of us – but this is not a happy way of putting it. If Beijing ever has to resort to military means then Hong Kong’s stability and prosperity will end abruptly.

But the whole story really does not stand up to close examination. If there is a public disorder problem it may be necessary, as a last resort, to send in troops. This is dangerous, because their training and approach are not intended for this sort of situation. A brisk military approach can lead to Bloody Sunday, Amritsar Massacre, Kent State, Tienanmen etc. Still, men in the street with guns are the last resort. In circumstances of this kind the navy and air force are useless.

A PLA frigate is a submarine hunter. It is not designed or equipped to sail down Queens Road and hose down an Occupy Central protest. The helicopters might have some utility as people-movers or observation platforms, but our government is not short of helicopters. If the PLA wishes to send a message about its willingness to shovel protesters off the street it will not doubt find a few truckfulls of soldiers to do a quick circuit of the one-way system. The sailors were just practising. News, not fiction, please.