tim's experiment

Say what you like about Occupy Central, it seems to bring out the worst in some people. I suppose Chambers of Commerce are entitled to their views on the matter, but a motley collection (the General, and chambers of Canada, Italy, Bahrain and India) went effortlessly from hyperbole to hypocrisy in their advertising campaign unveiled this week.”Newspaper vendors, restaurants, fast-food shops, and many other small businesses in Central all depend on a daily flow of customers for their livelihoods,” bleated the chambers. To be sure they do. But I do not recall the travails of Central pavement businesses ever attracted the attention of Chambers of Commerce before. Cut the crap about newspaper vendors, gentlemen, and admit that the looming prospect of Occupy Central is a threat to your interests.

Then we had the Secretary for Security, Lai Tung-kwok, who had an article published in several newspapers today, according to the Post, which was not one of them but ran the whole thing on its front page anyway. Mr Lai, as is customary with our government, is in charge of matters about which he knows very little. His career in the security business was spent entirely in the Immigration Department. Mr Lai, though, has a nice line in gloomy prophecy: “the radicals will take the opportunity to hijack the movement and turn peaceful public meetings into violence.” He goes on, “once violent confrontation occurs the situation may become irrevocable (?) and things could get out of control.” Well whether things get out of control could depend on many things. One of the things on which they depend is whether we have a sensible Secretary for Security who avoids provocative statements which could be interpreted as an order to get rough. Like Mr Lai’s conclusion: “We will ensure that the law enforcement agency will act in accordance with the law and will take robust action to uphold the rule of law and to maintain public safety and public order.” In other words, carte blanche for pepper spray?

Mr Lai’s predictions are a monument of lucidity, though,  compared with the nonsense peddled by Robert Chow Yung, spokesman for the Silent Majority which is neither silent nor a majority. Mr Chow thinks schools could be charged with neglect if their pupils skip classes to participate in Occupy Central, which is manifest nonsense. Students skip school all the time, for a variety of reasons. School are not expected to send out search parties. This piece of silliness is a close relative of another scare story, the idea that students convicted of public order offences might as a result lose their chance of going to university. Not so. I was involved for more than 20 years in university admissions and at no time did the question of candidates’ criminal convictions come up. The only vaguely legal problem was a boy who asked to be considered although his trial for a serious offence was after the interview period. He was interviewed and given an offer conditional on him not being in prison when it was time to take it up. Unfortunately he was convicted.

Now look, people, Occupy Central may be a first for Hong Kong, but there are plenty of similar examples from which we may learn. The lesson that history teaches is that it is very easy to stop road traffic in a big city for a day or two. This has no effect on the economy at all. Business continues. The sort of business which is conducted in modern business centres does not rely on road traffic at all. Indeed when some roads in the City of London were closed to hamper IRA car bombers the restrictions were so popular that they are still there. Some of the overseas examples, like the disorders attending the Democratic convention in Chicago in 1968 or the evenements in Paris the same year, have been subjected to very detailed examination and we can as a result say with reasonable confidence that Occupy Central may produce much telegenic traffic paralysis but it will not bring the economy to its knees. Nor will it lead to violent disorder unless the minority of violent demonstrators can get together with the minority of violent policemen. Nor will it lead to mass arrests and convictions of participants. Remember the Korean farmers’ protests during the WTO meetings in Hong Kong in 2005? Lots of pepper spray, tear gas, police cordons, kettling, arrests… The number of people eventually convicted after all this was precisely none. Zero. People who wish to continue to work in Central will continue to do so. Blocking access to a building is much harder than obstructing a road (see Wapping blockade, for example) and there is no sign that anyone intends to try it. Not everyone needs to travel by car. I imagine most Central workers commute by MTR, though I dare say Peter Woo is not one of them.

The real objection to Occupy Central is not that it will damage the economy, the livelihoods of Central hawkers or the prospects of local schoolkids. It is that it will embarrass the PRC government. This is a necessary precondition to any real progress in Hong Kong, as the latest PRC White Paper makes very clear. The Communist Party of China is not subject to the rule of law. The government is an extension of the Communist party so the government is not subject to the rule of law either. This is why the judges are party puppets and the PRC constitution is a work of fiction. Clearly a party in this situation does not regard itself as in any way limited by the Basic Law either. It is in China’s interests that Hong Kong should appear to be autonomous, and this represents an opportunity for Hong Kong because the easiest way to keep up this appearance is to allow matters which are much more important to Hong Kong than they are to China to be decided in Hong Kong. This of course still allows for plenty of influence to be exerted by the party through its local lackeys. Yes Peter and Robert that includes you. Clearly people who wish to see meaningful political progress will not get it by relying on the Basic Law, or on Beijing’s benevolence. Vociferous demands from Hong Kong might help. Exaggerated reactions to the prospect of Occupy Central just encourage people to believe that.